Free Risk of Ruin Calculator
A free risk of ruin calculator with no login. Enter your win rate, risk per trade, reward-to-risk and a ruin threshold, and it estimates — by simulating many scenarios in your browser — how often equity would fall to that threshold over a number of trades. An educational scenario estimate from your inputs — it does not predict what will happen in real trading.
Inputs
Percent of current balance.
e.g. 2 means win = 2× the amount risked.
Drawdown level counted as ruin.
1–2000 per simulation.
Estimated risk of ruin
0.0%
hitting 50% drawdown
Ruin level
$5,000
50% below start
Based on
3,000 simulations · 200 trades each
How it works
Risk of ruin is the probability that equity falls to a chosen threshold within a number of trades. Because payoffs are usually asymmetric, the tool estimates it by simulation rather than a closed-form equation.
It runs many randomised trade sequences from your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, then reports the fraction of runs that touched the ruin threshold. In the model, lower risk per trade and a more favourable reward-to-risk reduce the estimate; real trading depends on many factors beyond these inputs.
Example calculation
- Start $10,000 · risk 2% · win rate 45% · R:R 2:1 · ruin threshold 50% · 200 trades.
- The tool simulates thousands of sequences and reports the share that fell to the 50% threshold.
- Raising risk per trade to 5%+ typically increases the estimate sharply.
Frequently asked
How is risk of ruin estimated?
There is no simple formula for asymmetric payoffs, so the tool simulates many trade sequences from your inputs and counts how often equity falls to or below your ruin threshold. The result is an empirical estimate.
Why does a high risk per trade raise the risk so much?
Larger risk per trade means a losing streak draws down equity faster, so the same threshold is reached more often. The tool flags aggressive risk levels.
Is it free and private?
Yes — free, no login, and the simulation runs entirely in your browser with nothing stored.
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Want to track this automatically from your MetaTrader account?
NuvoraSync is a read-only MetaTrader journal and analytics workspace. Connect MT4 or MT5 once and your trades, drawdown and performance update on their own — no manual entry.
This free tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not provide trading signals, investment advice, financial recommendations, broker services or trade execution. Calculations are estimates based on the values you enter; simulations show scenario ranges only and do not predict future results or guarantee any outcome.