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Free Trading Expectancy Calculator

A free trading expectancy calculator with no login. Enter your win rate, average win, average loss and optional costs to estimate the expectancy per trade and the expected value over a number of trades. This is a scenario estimate based on your inputs — it does not predict future results.

Inputs

%

Share of trades that win (0–100).

USD
USD

Average losing trade (positive).

USD

Commission, swap, slippage.

For the expected-value scenario.

Expectancy / trade (estimate)

$52.50

based on your inputs

Expected value over 100 trades

$5,250

scenario estimate

Reading

Positive expectancy

This is a scenario estimate based only on the values you entered — it does not predict future results. Real outcomes vary and are never guaranteed.

How it works

Expectancy is the average result you would expect per trade if your inputs held: expectancy = p × avgWin − (1 − p) × avgLoss − cost, where p is the win rate as a decimal and avgLoss is a positive magnitude.

Multiplying by a number of trades gives an expected value over that sample. These are estimates based on your inputs and do not predict future outcomes.

Example calculation

  • Win rate 45% · average win $300 · average loss $150 · cost $5.
  • Expectancy = 0.45 × 300 − 0.55 × 150 − 5 = $47.50 per trade (estimate).
  • Over 100 trades = $4,750 expected value in this scenario.

Frequently asked

How is expectancy calculated?

Expectancy per trade = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) − costs. A positive number suggests a positive edge in the scenario you entered; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Why the careful wording about forecasts?

Expectancy summarises the inputs you provide. Real results depend on your own trading and vary, so the tool reports a scenario estimate and never predicts profits.

Is the tool free?

Yes — free, no login, nothing stored.

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This free tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not provide trading signals, investment advice, financial recommendations, broker services or trade execution. Calculations are estimates based on the values you enter; simulations show scenario ranges only and do not predict future results or guarantee any outcome.